Apple may buck smartphone slump as analysts cut iPhone forecasts
A GF Securities note forecasts Apple shipment growth in a shrinking smartphone market, while warning of iPhone production constraints.
Apple could be the only major smartphone maker to grow shipments this year, even as analysts expect the wider market to contract sharply. A new investor note from GF Securities, reported by 9to5Mac, projects a 4% year-on-year increase for Apple to 257 million units.1
Apple bucks a shrinking market
The note estimates that global smartphone shipments will fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units. Samsung, meanwhile, is projected to ship 241 million phones — roughly flat on 2025 — leaving Apple with a forecast 24% share of the market, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024.1
The analysts link the wider downturn to sharply higher memory costs, which are pushing manufacturers to reduce shipment plans and raise prices. They describe 2026 and 2027 as an especially difficult period for the industry.
iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro face constraints
The same report is less upbeat about Apple's current product mix. It says reception for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max has been relatively lukewarm, with weight cited as one criticism. Production constraints are also said to be affecting both the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro line.
According to the quoted build-plan figures, the iPhone Duo has been cut from seven million units to six million in 2026 because of hinge constraints. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max plan has been reduced to 72 million units because of issues associated with the adjustable-aperture camera.1
The iPhone Duo began pre-orders on October 16, although delivery estimates in the US were already stretching into late January, according to 9to5Mac's separate reporting.1
Our opinion
The forecast is a useful reminder that shipment growth and product momentum are not the same thing. Apple may be gaining share because rivals are being squeezed harder, while its own high-end lines still face demand and manufacturing questions. The figures come from an analyst note rather than Apple's guidance, so they should be treated as a projection — not a confirmed sales result.
Apple's ability to grow in a shrinking market will ultimately depend on whether it can turn that market-share advantage into sustained demand without allowing production constraints or higher component costs to push prices beyond what customers will accept.